The Krikorian Group

The Krikorian Group

Assessment Overview

© 2007, Steve Krikorian

Purpose and Goal

The purpose of a Krikorian Group flight safety assessment is to assist a company in achieving the safest flying organization possible; to focus on striving toward zero accidents and injuries. The assessment’s goal is to provide the company a meaningful measure of the likelihood their flying program might suffer a serious aircraft accident or incident, and provide suggestions for improved “safe-aware” operations, specifically tailored to the company to minimize risk.

The assessment attempts to identify any influence, at any level within the company, which may increase the risk of an aircraft accident. Assessments examine a company’s aviation program from six different aspects called “assessment categories:” 1) the nature of the business, 2) corporate leadership, 3) company management, 4) pilots, 5) aircraft, and, 6) external flight ops support. Within each category, specific “elements” are assessed for their impact on flying safety, either positive or negative. The company plays an important role in the assessment as people are interviewed, documents reviewed, industry data researched, and operations and maintenance practices are observed. The assessment is as good as the participation of the company, and of course, the flight operations division.

Bell curve drawn for discussion purposes and is not mathematically proportional

Bell curve drawn for discussion purposes and is not mathematically proportional

Statistical Assumption

The Krikorian Group assessment method begins with the statistical assumption the vast majority of aviation programs examined will, by virtue of the common task of flying airplanes, share similar characteristics both measurable and statistically distributable. Thus, the “average” company should closely model the familiar “bell curve” standard deviation distribution.

For simplicity, a population norm, or what is considered average, is one standard deviation either side of the “mean” (statistical average) which encompasses approximately 70% of the data population, or for our purposes, 70% of a typical company’s assessed elements.

Outside the norm are the second and third deviations, totaling nearly the remaining 30% of the data. The second deviation is about 12% while the third deviation will be a small 3%. Thus, the second and third deviations are the extreme 15% of the curve, on both the low and high sides (thus, 30% of total).